Does Andy have any predictions for the actual level US inflation might hit? Does the inflation unavoidable? Will the inflation rate exceed 4% for China?

Andy对美国通胀能达到什么水平是否有预测？通胀是不可避免的吗？中国的通胀会超过4%吗？

【Andy Xie】

The US inflation rate averaged 3.5% in the last four decades of the 20th century.  In the last ten years it has declined to under 2% due to declining import prices even though service inflation rate stayed about 3% most of the time.  Think that the US will average 5% inflation rate for the next decade or two. China will have similar inflation as the US as its currency is pegged to the dollar.

20世纪最后四十年，美国平均通胀率是3.5%，而上世纪最后十年，尽管大部分时间里，服务通胀率都停留在3%的水平，但是由于出口价格下降，因此平均通胀率也下降到2%的水平。我认为，在接下来的一二十年里，美国的平均通胀率会达到5%。由于中国采取盯住美元的汇率政策，因此可能会保持和美国一致的通胀水平。