heik86666：谢先生，你能否分析下我国今年以来工业数据上升与用电量背离的问题？切盼！

大约70%的电力消费是来自工业，并且中国几乎一半的工业是为了出口而生产。因为出口下降20%，电力消费应该很疲弱。在2008年的最后一个季度，电力需求下降很多。

除了出口下降，大宗商品的存货周期，例如钢铁和有色金属，也起到重要作用。很多工厂和经销商在2008年夏天认为价格会上涨，所以增加了库存。当价格下降，每个人都赶快清空库存。钢铁和有色金属的需求从而迅速跌落，迫使厂商停产或者减产。

春节过后，随着去库存结束，需求增加，生产又开始恢复。这导致PMI和用电量的增加。许多分析师认为经济又开始好转。但是，这实际上是技术性的变化。电力消费仍将在很长时间内显得疲弱，因为国外对中国出口的需求不太可能强力复苏。全球经济在未来五年将低位运行。

附原文：

About 70% of electricity consumption is for industry. Nearly half of China's industry is for export production. As exports are down 20%, electricity consumption should be weak. In the last quarter of 2008, the electricity consumption literally collapsed. In addition to export decline, the inventory cycle in commodities like steel and non-ferrous metals played an important role. Many factories and distributors increased inventories in the summer of 2008 betting on rising prices. When the prices turned down, everyone tried to run down inventory as soon as possible. Demand for steel and non-ferrous metals collapsed, forcing the producers to shut down production. After Chinese New Year, the destocking was complete, and demand for continuing production came back. It led to pickup in PMI and electricity consumption. Many analysts thought the economy was turning up again. It was actually a technical change. Electricity consumption will remain weak for a long time as export demand is unlikely to recover strongly. The global economy could remain weak for five years.