《财经网》网友：中国现在是否在囤积大宗商品和原材料，如果是，规模有多大呢？这对美国和全球的通胀有什么影响，以及中国经济和她的银行体系会受到什么影响？

答：对于中国公布的进口中有多少是为了囤积，现在尚不清楚。不过，我有把握的是，中国制造业部门的投资仍然很弱。房地产建设直到目前依然很少。销量的复苏可能给开发商带来资金，支持其开发。对大宗商品的需求可能从低位开始恢复。不过，这些现象并不支持最近的进口数据。目前的需求水平仍比去年低很多。我推测，目前大约三分之一的进口是投机性的存货堆积。

CRB商品指数差不多从2009年的低位上涨近三分之一。它的通胀影响已经可以感受到。例如，对食品加工业来讲，每种原材料开始在2009年4月涨价。

对于美国来说，油价已经从底部上涨了两倍。这对它的经济复苏是非常坏的消息。对在债务危机中损失严重的低收入家庭，他们为上涨的油价额外支付的金额是其家庭收入的2%-3%。当然，他们可以在其他方面减少开支，而且只要油价在上涨，美国的经济就很难复苏。

美联储很快会被迫升息，很可能就在年底之前。这是因为通胀影响催生了商品投机。上升的利率使美国经济快速复苏的最后希望破灭。

We don't know how much China's record imports are for stockpiling.  As far as I can tell investment in manufacturing sector is very weak.  Property construction was very low until now.  The revival in sales may give property developers cash for supporting contruction.  The demand for commodities may pick up some from the low base.  Still,the situation doesn't justify record imports. The current demand level is much lower than last year's.  I suspect over one third of the current imports are for speculative inventory piling.

The CRB commodity index is nearly up by one third from the low in 2009.  Its inflationary impact is already felt.  For example, for food processing industry, every type of raw material began to inflate in April 2009. 

For the US oil price has doubled from the bottom.  This is very bad news for its economic recovery.  For low incomefamilies that are hit hard by the debt crisis, their extra pay for higher gasoline price is about 2-3% of their household income.  Of course, they can spend less on others and the economy can't recover as long as oil price keeps rising.

The Fed can be forced into raising interest rate soon, probably before yearend.  This is because the inflationary impact form commodity speculation.  The rising interest rate removes the last hope for a quick economic recovery.